The U.S. as a whole is not currently in a nationwide recession, with recent GDP growth at 3.8% and unemployment steady at 4.3%. However, about 22 states plus the District of Columbia are experiencing economic contraction and recession-like conditions, while another 13 states are "treading water." This means that while parts of the country feel recessionary effects, especially in lower income groups and certain regions impacted by tariffs, federal job cuts, and economic policy uncertainty, the overall national economy is still officially growing. The risk of a national recession is very high, and if major states like California or New York falter, it could tip the U.S. into recession. Job market weakness and financial strain are spreading unevenly, affecting many states with manufacturing or goods-producing industries particularly hard.
In summary, no nation-wide recession yet, but significant regional recessions exist, and the overall economic outlook is precarious with high risks pending further shocks.
