The United States is not currently in a civil war. According to recent expert analysis and academic research, the U.S. does not meet the criteria of a civil war, which requires organized armed conflict between a government and an internal opposition group resulting in significant battlefield casualties on both sides. While there is political polarization, social tension, and sporadic political violence, these do not amount to civil war.
However, some recent events and rhetoric, including President Trump's deployment of National Guard troops to some Democratic-run states without requests from their governors, have raised concerns and fears of escalating internal division. These actions have intensified political conflict rhetoric, but scholars and most experts still do not consider it a civil war, though acknowledge the country is facing serious political polarization and threats of violence.
Notably, billionaire investor Ray Dalio has recently warned of a rising risk of civil war due to growing political divides, economic stresses, and tests of power between opposing groups. Still, this is a warning about potential future conflict rather than proof the country is currently in a civil war.
In summary, as of October 2025, the U.S. is not in a civil war but is experiencing heightened political polarization and some political violence, with concerns about the future risk of internal conflict if tensions escalate further.
