Short answer: Yes, in the current NYC mayoral race as of late 2025, Zohran Mamdani leads, but there are ongoing dynamics that could affect the outcome, including independent candidate Andrew Cuomo narrowing the gap in some polls and Curtis Sliwa remaining a potential spoiler in certain scenarios. The race is tight enough that late developments and voter turnout could swing results. Context and what matters
- Poll trajectories: Multiple recent polls show Mamdani with a lead, but Cuomo has been shown narrowing the gap in at least some surveys. The latest swing polls suggest Cuomo could gain ground if he consolidates independent and crossover support. This indicates the race is not settled and remains competitively balanced in precincts and demographics where Cuomo’s campaign is focused.
- Spoiler effect: Cuomo’s presence as an independent candidate introduces a potential spoiler dynamic, especially among voters who are dissatisfied with the major-party options. In some surveys, Cuomo’s strength appears to come from voters who might otherwise back Mamdani or who could swing to Cuomo as a second-choice option depending on turnout and campaigning.
- Endgame factors: With Election Day and early voting underway, turnout patterns among key groups (young voters, immigrant communities, and working-class residents) will likely determine the final result. endorsements and late campaigning can shift opinions in the final days.
What to watch next
- Final poll averages: Monitor reputable poll aggregators for the latest averages, especially those that include early voting data and likely-voter models. A tightening margin would signal a potential for a Cuomo upset or a very close result.
- Turnout and early voting: Early voting turnout figures can reveal which coalitions are mobilizing and may presage the election-day outcome. High turnout among Mamdani’s base could sustain a lead; otherwise, Cuomo could narrow the gap.
- Post-election dynamics: If Mamdani wins, expect discussions about policy implementation in a possibly fractured political environment; if Cuomo wins or nearly wins, there may be debates about coalition governance and reform momentum.
Direct answer: While Mamdani is widely seen as the frontrunner in many public assessments, recent polling in some outlets shows Andrew Cuomo narrowing the gap, and in certain surveys Cuomo remains within striking distance of Mamdani. The race is not decided, and outcomes hinge on late-breaking campaigning, turnout, and voters’ second-choice preferences.
