Earthquakes cannot currently be predicted with precise accuracy regarding their exact time, location, and magnitude. Seismologists and agencies like the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) state clearly that neither they nor any other scientists have ever successfully predicted a major earthquake, nor do they expect to be able to do so in the foreseeable future. Earthquake prediction requires specifying three elements simultaneously—date and time, location, and magnitude—and no scientific method reliably achieves this at present. Instead, scientists calculate probabilities and forecasts, estimating the likelihood of earthquakes occurring in certain regions over years or decades based on past seismic activity and geological data. However, advancements in artificial intelligence have shown promising potential in short-term earthquake prediction. For example, researchers using AI to analyze real-time seismic and electromagnetic data in southwestern China were able to correctly predict about 70% of earthquakes occurring within a week during a trial period. These methods are still experimental and need broader testing before being widely accepted or employed. In summary, while precise earthquake prediction remains beyond current scientific capability, probability-based forecasting is used for long-term hazard assessment and preparedness. Early warning systems do provide alerts seconds to minutes after an earthquake starts but are not predictions. AI research may offer future breakthroughs but is not yet conclusive or globally applied.
