government shutdown how likely

A U.S. government shutdown is very likely to occur on October 1, 2025, as Congress has not reached an agreement to pass the necessary funding bills before the deadline. Both Republicans and Democrats remain entrenched in their positions, with Republicans pushing for a straightforward temporary funding extension and Democrats demanding inclusion of healthcare provisions. The Senate requires 60 votes to pass a funding bill, which cannot be met with Republicans' 53 senators alone, escalating the chances of a shutdown. Prediction markets estimate about a 2 in 3 chance of a shutdown with a likely duration of around five days, though last-minute negotiations could still avert it. During the shutdown, many federal employees would face furloughs without pay, and various government services would be disrupted, though essential operations like Social Security and military services would continue. The Trump administration has warned agencies to prepare for mass layoffs beyond standard furloughs, contributing to widespread anxiety among federal workers.