The Bills are one game behind the Patriots in the AFC East and need both wins and specific New England losses to take the division this year. Their path combines on-field fixes and some outside help in the standings.
What must happen in the standings
- New England is 11-3 and Buffalo is 10-4, so the Bills either need a better final record or to win key tiebreakers.
- A common scenario: Buffalo wins out while the Patriots lose at least one divisional game (Jets or Dolphins) and possibly another AFC game (like Baltimore), which flips division/conference tiebreakers in Buffalo’s favor.
On-field priorities for Buffalo
- Keep leaning on a top-tier offense (No. 3 in total yards, No. 1 rushing) while protecting the ball; the margin for error in each of the last games is basically zero.
- Tighten up the run defense (ranked near the bottom of the league) so opponents cannot shorten games, keep Josh Allen on the sideline, and steal a critical late-season upset.
Game-plan focus vs remaining opponents
- Against strong pass rushes like Cleveland’s, the Bills need quick-game concepts, designed runs for Allen, and heavy use of tight ends and backs in protection to avoid drive-killing sacks or turnovers.
- Versus division foes such as the Jets, staying efficient in the red zone and avoiding special teams mistakes is crucial, since those matchups often turn into low-margin, field-position games that affect divisional record tiebreakers.
What Bills fans should root for
- Root for the Patriots to drop at least one AFC East game (Jets or Dolphins) and preferably another AFC matchup (Ravens), which opens multiple tiebreak paths for Buffalo.
- Root for other AFC contenders to beat New England and generally keep the Patriots’ conference record worse than Buffalo’s, increasing the chance that a tied overall record still gives the Bills the division.
Big-picture keys
- Buffalo already has strong late-season form, with one of the league’s best December–January records since 2020, so sustaining health and execution is critical.
- If the Bills handle their own schedule and the Patriots stumble, Buffalo can still reclaim the AFC East; if not, their strong record still positions them as a dangerous wild-card team.
