The Cowboys’ playoff odds in 2025 are extremely slim, but there is still a narrow mathematical path. The key is that they must win every remaining game and get a lot of outside help.
Current situation
The Cowboys are 6-7-1 after losing to the Vikings, which dropped their playoff probability to around 1% and left them on the outside of the NFC playoff picture. They sit behind multiple teams in both the NFC East race and the wild‑card standings, so any additional loss would effectively eliminate them.
What Dallas must do
Dallas must win out, finishing 9-7-1, to have even a realistic mathematical argument for a postseason spot. Their remaining games (Chargers, Commanders, Giants) are generally viewed as winnable, but even a 2-1 finish almost certainly ends their chances.
Paths: division vs wild card
The “cleanest” route is somehow stealing the NFC East if the Eagles completely collapse while Dallas wins out. Failing that, the wild‑card path would require Dallas to win all remaining games and see several teams ahead of them (like the Lions and Panthers) lose repeatedly to fall back into the 7‑seed range.
How other teams must help
For the division route, the Eagles would need to keep stumbling and finish with enough additional losses for Dallas to leapfrog them with a 9-7-1 finish. For the wild card, tiebreakers such as conference record and head‑to‑head against other bubble teams (Lions, Panthers, Packers, etc.) would have to break just right, which is why most projections now rate their chances as remote.
