Xavier Becerra’s rise in the California governor’s race appears to come from a late surge after Eric Swalwell dropped out, which left a chunk of Democratic voters up for grabs and boosted Becerra in recent polling. Recent reports also say he has been leading or near the top among Democrats and undecided voters, even though the overall field is still tight with Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer in the mix.
Why he’s gaining
- He benefited from the post-Swalwell reshuffle, which seems to have consolidated some Democratic support around him.
- Polling suggests he is strong with voters who have not yet cast ballots, which matters in a close top-two primary.
- One poll found him at 23% among likely voters, while another had him at 25%, showing a narrow but real lead in late May.
What the race looks like
The race is still competitive, not a blowout. One update showed Steve Hilton ahead with 28% and Becerra at 25% as counting continued after the June 2 primary, so the order may still shift as ballots are processed. Earlier coverage described the race as “Becerra’s race to lose,” but also noted that the margin is small enough that late-counted votes could matter.
Simple read
In plain English, Becerra is “leading” because he picked up momentum at the right time, not because he has runaway support. He seems to have become the main Democratic alternative as the field narrowed, which is often enough to move someone from the middle of the pack into the front tier.
TL;DR
Becerra is leading mainly because he surged after other Democrats faltered or exited, and he’s consolidating late Democratic and undecided support in a very tight race.