The likelihood of nuclear war in 2025 is highly uncertain with expert opinions varying enormously. Evaluations from recent studies and expert workshops show probability estimates ranging over many orders of magnitude, from near zero to surprisingly high for all-out nuclear conflict depending on scenario specifics and country interactions. Experts agree on complex and realistic possibilities of escalation through multiple thresholds, yet they differ substantially on how and when these escalations might occur. Key geopolitical tensions involving the US, China, Russia, and North Korea are central risk factors, while nuclear arms races and weakened arms control regimes add to the danger. Advancements in technologies such as AI, cyber capabilities, and missile defense further complicate deterrence and increase the risk of accidental or miscalculated nuclear outbreak. Despite this, some experts view very low probabilities for actual nuclear strikes in current scenarios, though the consequences if war occurs would be catastrophic globally.
In summary, while no precise numerical probability can be confidently given due to wide divergence in expert assessments, the risk is considered real and significant enough that avoiding nuclear war remains a critical international security priority. The evolving geopolitical landscape and technology trends suggest caution and diplomatic efforts are urgently needed to reduce these risks.
