The likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown as of late September 2025 is very high, with prediction markets placing the odds at about 70-86 percent. The shutdown deadline is set for midnight at the end of Tuesday, September 30, 2025, when current federal funding expires if no agreement is reached to extend it. Despite meetings involving President Donald Trump and congressional leaders, no bipartisan deal has been finalized. Disputes mainly revolve around healthcare funding and budget cuts. Vice President JD Vance and other Republican leaders have expressed belief that a shutdown is likely, blaming Democrats for refusing to compromise. Democrats insist on healthcare provisions such as extensions of Affordable Care Act subsidies, which Republicans oppose including in the short-term funding measure. The Senate lacks the 60 votes to advance the Republican bill, and the House—controlled by a narrow Republican majority—is divided internally as well. If a shutdown occurs, it would lead to furloughs and delayed paychecks for millions of federal employees, including military personnel who might go unpaid during the closure. Unlike previous shutdowns, the Trump administration has signaled intent for more aggressive measures such as permanent layoffs of federal workers rather than just furloughs. The standoff reflects deep partisan divisions and is complicated by looming midterm elections and President Trump's influence over the Republican caucus. In summary, the government shutdown is highly likely without a last-minute agreement, and its impact could be more severe than prior shutdowns if executed as threatened by the current administration.
