Based on recent expert surveys and analysis from 2025, the likelihood of a major war, potentially a world war, within the next decade is increasingly recognized as significant by many experts and public opinion:
- Around 40% of surveyed experts expect a multifront world war involving great powers within the next decade, a conflict that could include nuclear weapons and extend to space-based military operations. This reflects growing global tensions, particularly involving the US, China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran.
- Concerns are especially centered on potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific, such as China attempting to retake Taiwan by force (with 65% expecting this scenario), and rising chances of direct Russia-NATO clashes (45% expecting conflict). The formation of bloc alliances aligned with China or the US is also expected, raising the risk of escalations.
- Public opinion in Western countries similarly shows that roughly 40-55% of people in major European countries and the US believe that a third world war is likely within 5 to 10 years, with nuclear warfare widely expected if such a conflict occurs.
- The global geopolitical landscape is described as volatile, with multipolar competition, weakening international norms, and regional flashpoints such as the Arctic and contested regions fueling the risk of wider war.
- Defense experts have noted that recent months show increasing risks of regional conflicts sparking a broader nuclear war, triggered by factors like ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, US-China tensions, nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea, and nuclear saber-rattling by world leaders.
In summary, while war is not inevitable, there is a substantive probability of major conflict in the coming years according to expert and public assessments, driven by geopolitical rivalry, regional conflicts, and nuclear risk. Nuclear weapons and multipolar alliances will likely complicate any future conflict dynamics.
