how likely is war with russia

The likelihood of a war with Russia in the immediate future (2025–2026) is generally assessed by experts and intelligence agencies as low to very low. Multiple sources indicate that Russia is currently focused on the conflict in Ukraine and is not considered ready or capable of launching a major military attack on NATO countries in 2025–2026. The readiness for a possible large- scale war against NATO is forecasted for a longer-term timeframe, around 2027 to 2030, with various assessments predicting Russia might be prepared for such an operation between 2027 and 2030 depending on different scenarios and military recovery after the Ukraine conflict. Smaller-scale, limited operations or provocations against NATO's eastern members, such as the Baltic states, may be considered possible within a shorter timeframe but are not highly likely to escalate immediately into a full-scale war. NATO and German defense officials emphasize preparation and deterrence measures due to these mid-to-long-term risks. In summary, while the risk of outright war with Russia in 2025 is low, careful monitoring and readiness for potential escalations remain priorities for NATO, with the most cited potential for significant conflict being in the late 2020s.