The current U.S. federal government shutdown, which began on October 1, 2025, is widely expected to last at least two to three weeks, with high probabilities placed on it extending past October 15. Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket estimate a 64-85% chance the shutdown will extend beyond 21 days or until mid-October or later. There is limited optimism among traders and lawmakers for a quick resolution, with less than a quarter expecting it to end in the first two weeks of October. Congressional negotiations remain deadlocked, and political tensions are high, making a near-term resolution unlikely at this time.
Key points:
- The shutdown started October 1, 2025, and is now in its second week with no resolution.
- Traders give a strong likelihood (64-85%) it will last beyond October 15.
- Congressional gridlock and partisan disputes hinder progress toward ending the shutdown.
- Federal workers are impacted with missed paychecks and furloughs continuing.
Thus, the government shutdown is expected to last multiple weeks, likely extending well into mid-October or beyond at this stage.
