They are not automatically out if they lose, but their playoff chances drop a lot and they would need a very strong finish and outside help.
Current playoff outlook
The Colts are 8–6 heading into their final three games, with their playoff odds estimated around 10% after the recent loss to the Seahawks. They are still “in the hunt” in the AFC picture, which means they are not yet mathematically eliminated.
Impact of another loss
Simulations show that if the Colts win their last three games, their playoff odds jump to roughly the high 90% range, but a loss in any of those, especially to division rivals Jacksonville or Houston, drops their odds to around the low teens. So a loss would make it very unlikely they make the postseason, but not a guaranteed elimination unless other specific AFC results go against them that week.
