This year, 2025, is currently in an ENSO-neutral state, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are fully established. However, there is a strong likelihood that La Niña conditions will develop and persist from the fall into the winter months. Specifically, forecasts show about a 60-71% chance of La Niña during October to December 2025, with continued likelihood into early 2026. The chances of El Niño developing during this period are negligible. Summary of key points:
- ENSO-neutral conditions have persisted since mid-2025.
- Probability of La Niña formation rises to about 55-71% from fall to early winter 2025.
- La Niña is favored through December 2025 to February 2026, though chances decline thereafter.
- El Niño development is very unlikely in late 2025 and early 2026.
So overall, 2025 is transitioning from a neutral state toward a La Niña phase in the later part of the year and early next year.
