The likelihood of World War III is currently a topic of serious debate among experts. While regional conflicts like those in the Middle East, Ukraine, and tensions between major powers such as the US, China, and Russia increase global tensions, experts largely agree that a full-scale global war involving all great powers is still unlikely. Key points from recent assessments include:
- A conflict between Iran and Israel could escalate regionally but is not expected to automatically trigger World War III because major powers like Russia and China are unlikely to fully support such a war.
- The possibility of a major war involving great powers remains tied to scenarios like direct conflict between NATO and Russia, particularly around Eastern Europe. Such a scenario is considered more likely if current tensions deteriorate significantly.
- Surveys show a significant portion of experts and the public expect some form of major conflict or "world war" within the next decade, potentially involving nuclear weapons or space warfare, especially over flashpoints like Taiwan.
- However, the current international system, with independent powers in the Global South and strong economic interdependence, acts as a deterrent against global war. Nuclear deterrence through Mutual Assured Destruction also reduces the chances of a full-scale war.
- Although tensions are higher than ever, many experts believe regional conflicts will continue rather than escalate into a global war, due to the high costs and complexities of such an escalation.
- Public opinion in some Western countries shows substantial concern that World War III could be imminent, but this is often influenced by specific regional conflicts and political rhetoric.
In summary, although the risk has increased due to current geopolitical tensions and conflicts, a global-scale World War III involving many great powers is still considered unlikely in the immediate future, with deterrence and international complexities playing key roles in preventing escalation to that level.
