Several factors indicate the degree of trouble Vladimir Putin may be in:
- Internal Dissent Mysterious attacks in Moscow, including the destruction of a presidential limousine, indicate a possible Ukrainian sabotage network or disgruntled Russians seeking to depose Putin
. Purges within Putin's regime are expected to identify and address disloyal elements, potentially causing alienation among senior figures
- Ukraine War Putin may see doubling down in the Ukraine war as a solution to his problems, potentially declaring martial law and initiating a new wave of mobilization to intensify repression and divert attention from his domestic weaknesses
. However, the conflict in Ukraine has led to substantial military casualties and suffering for the Russian populace, meaning that any outcome short of decisive victory could jeopardize Putin's leadership
- Approval Rating Despite a decline in 2022 after a partial mobilization announcement, Putin's approval rating has remained relatively stable, with almost 90% of Russians approving of his activities as of March 2025
- International Relations Putin seeks an agreement with the United States to acknowledge Russia as a major power and establish spheres of influence, but his primary focus is on maintaining power by any means necessary
. The United States has limited leverage, with options like stricter sanctions risking trade conflicts and easing sanctions potentially frustrating European allies
- Geopolitical Challenges Putin's international allies are increasingly preoccupied with their own issues, such as China's focus on Taiwan and Lukashenko's struggle to maintain power in Belarus
