what is el nino 2023

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator, which occurs on average every 2-7 years. According to NOAAs Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, the expected El Niño has emerged and is expected to be moderate-to-strong by late fall/early winter. El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through January - March 2024) . There is now around a 71% chance that this event peaks as a strong El Niño this winter. El Niño's impacts on the climate extend far beyond the Pacific Ocean, and depending on its strength, it can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world. Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Niño.