If Russia invades Ukraine on a large scale or achieves a significant victory, several serious consequences are likely:
- Russia may gain control of vast natural resources, industrial capacity, and agricultural assets of Ukraine, potentially dominating global agricultural markets and energy reserves. This would revitalize the Russian military and economy in the short term while posing a strategic threat to neighboring countries and NATO.
- There would be massive human suffering, including a large refugee crisis with millions of Ukrainians fleeing westward, significant violence and human rights abuses against civilians, and a demographic decline in Ukraine.
- The geopolitical balance in Europe would be severely disrupted, with Russia exerting pressure over Central and Eastern Europe, possibly interfering in their internal politics, increasing tensions with NATO, and causing strains in U.S.-European relations.
- Globally, such an outcome could embolden other authoritarian regimes and increase instability, such as greater Chinese confidence in actions toward Taiwan.
- Militarily, Russia has already suffered extensive losses in Ukraine, with high casualties and equipment losses, but a victory would still significantly strengthen Russia's position on NATO’s eastern border.
- The ongoing war has caused substantial economic impacts on both countries, with Russia facing steep war costs but also potential gains through control of Ukraine’s resources; Ukraine has suffered severe economic contraction and infrastructure devastation.
- Russia continues to target Ukraine's critical infrastructure, especially energy, to weaken Ukrainian resistance ahead of winters, worsening civilian hardship.
In summary, a Russian invasion or victory would have profound humanitarian, economic, and geopolitical repercussions not only for Ukraine and Russia but for Europe and global security at large.
