China is widely predicted by experts and intelligence to potentially be ready for an invasion of Taiwan by around 2027, coinciding with the centennial of the People's Liberation Army. However, many experts emphasize that an outright invasion is not certain, and the most likely scenario includes a limited conflict such as a blockade intended to isolate Taiwan economically and diplomatically rather than a full-scale war. The timeline highlights 2025 as a key year where China could be nearing readiness for such action, with military modernization ongoing, but the preferred method might involve pressure tactics rather than immediate invasion.
Key Points on Timing
- Taiwan’s military and U.S. officials suggest China could be militarily ready for an invasion by 2027, tied to the PLA’s 100th anniversary.
- U.S. Secretary of Defense and other officials have warned the PLA aims to be capable of taking Taiwan by force by 2027.
- There is ongoing military buildup and preparations including naval expansion and legal groundwork for potential invasion.
- Analysts consider a blockade scenario more likely than an outright invasion, which could start earlier and escalate tensions without immediate full conflict.
- Public sentiment in Taiwan largely believes a full invasion within the next 5 years is unlikely, although defense measures are being strengthened.
Nature of Potential Conflict
- The scenario of China imposing a maritime and air blockade to isolate Taiwan is seen as a plausible step, potentially causing economic and supply disruptions without direct combat.
- Such a blockade could lead to shortages in energy and essentials in Taiwan within weeks, critically impacting civilian and economic life.
- Full military conflict remains possible but less certain, with experts assigning roughly a 35% chance to an all-out invasion in the near term, and higher likelihood to limited conflict such as blockade.
Overall, while invasion is often predicted around 2027, the possibility remains uncertain, and intermediary steps like blockades or other pressure tactics may occur earlier or instead. The situation is dynamic with significant military, political, and international factors at play.
