The next major ice age is predicted to begin naturally within the next approximately 10,000 to 11,000 years based on Earth's orbital cycles and past ice age timing patterns. However, human-caused greenhouse gas emissions have significantly delayed this timeline, potentially by tens of thousands of years or more, possibly preventing the next ice age from occurring for at least 50,000 to 100,000 years.
Natural Timing of the Next Ice Age
- Earth's past ice ages have been linked to precise cycles in the tilt, wobble, and shape of Earth's orbit around the sun.
- Without human interference, the next glacial period would likely start within 10,000 to 11,000 years and last tens of thousands of years.
Impact of Human Activity
- Current atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are the highest in at least 800,000 years, which disrupts the natural orbital-driven timing of ice ages.
- Human-driven climate change is delaying the onset of the next ice age by potentially 50,000 to 100,000 years or more due to the warming effect of greenhouse gases.
This means the Earth is currently in an unusually long warm period (interglacial) that is being extended by human impact on the climate system. Consequently, the traditional pattern of ice age cycles is no longer following its expected timetable. In summary, the next ice age would naturally occur in about 10,000 years, but due to human-induced climate change, it is very likely to be postponed far beyond that time frame.
