Venice is sinking due to a combination of natural subsidence, human activities, and rising sea levels caused by climate change. Experts warn that parts of Venice could be permanently underwater by as early as 2100, with some projections extending this to around 2150 depending on the rate of sea level rise and climate change scenarios.
Why Venice is Sinking
- Venice sits on wooden piles driven into soft mud and clay, making it vulnerable to sinking gradually.
- The city has subsided around 15 to 25 centimeters (6 to 10 inches) over the past century.
- The sea level around Venice has risen nearly 30 centimeters (about 1 foot) since 1900.
- Climate change accelerates this problem by causing more frequent and severe flooding events and higher baseline sea levels.
Timeline Estimates
- Many climate experts predict Venice could start to be largely underwater by 2100.
- Worst-case climate scenarios suggest sea levels could rise enough by mid-21st century to submerge large parts of Venice.
- Some studies suggest partial submersion could happen by 2150 depending on climate actions taken globally.
- The sinking rate is about 1 to 2 millimeters per year, continuing alongside rising seas.
Efforts to Save Venice
- The MOSE Project: A system of 78 flood barriers designed to protect Venice from exceptionally high tides. While helpful, it is a temporary defense.
- Innovative proposals like pumping water into underground aquifers to lift the city by 30 cm have been suggested to buy more time.
- Despite these efforts, Venice's preservation is seen as a race against time due to ongoing environmental pressures.
In conclusion, Venice is expected to sink gradually with significant flooding risks escalating over the next decades. While a complete submersion by 2100 is widely feared under current climate projections, engineering solutions may delay this outcome but not fully prevent it without global climate action.
