Short answer: It’s not possible to predict with perfect certainty which exact flights will be canceled, but you can gauge risk using current operational pressures, airline performance histories, and real-time disruption notices. Right now, holiday travel during a government shutdown creates elevated risk of cancellations, especially on routes served by carriers with higher historical cancellation rates or on airports facing staffing or air-traffic- control bottlenecks. Real-time flight-status feeds and airline disruption alerts are essential to monitor for your specific itinerary. Key factors driving cancellations now
- Government shutdown impact: FAA/air-traffic-control staffing and security staffing pressures can lead to planned reductions in flying or more cancellations, particularly in high-traffic markets during peak travel periods. Expect 10% reductions in scheduled departures at some busy airports if shutdown persists, with downstream cancellations possible [web results reflect 2025-11-05 to 2025-11-06 coverage].
- Airline-level cancellation trends: Some carriers historically cancel flights at higher rates than others, which influences route-level risk. For 2025, American, Frontier, and others show elevated cancellation rates relative to peers, while Hawaiian, Delta, Alaska, and United have lower recent cancellation rates on average. Use these patterns to assess which itineraries might be more fragile on specific carriers.
- Real-time disruption data: Live cancellation trackers and lists of affected airports are being published as the situation evolves. Checking live feeds (e.g., FlightAware or airline-tracker pages) will give you the current state of cancellations for your exact flights.
How to assess your specific flight risk
- Check your carrier’s recent cancellation rate on similar routes and recent seasonality patterns.
- Look up the specific flight on a real-time flight tracker close to departure for any status changes.
- Monitor official notices from the FAA or the airline about capacity reductions or cancellations in high-volume markets.
- If possible, consider flexible options: travel on less volatile routes, choose later-in-the-day departures (which sometimes fare better in disruptions), or have a backup plan with alternate airports and dates.
Practical steps for your planning
- Before booking: review current disruption risk signals for your intended itinerary (carrier performance, departure airport stress, and any government disruption news).
- After booking: enable flight alerts from the airline and a trusted third-party tracker; have a contingency plan for rebooking with minimal fees if a cancellation occurs.
- If you must travel during peak disruption risk: fly with a carrier that has historically lower cancellation rates on your route, and consider travel insurance or fare options with favorable change policies.
If you’d like, share your origin, destination, preferred dates, and airline options, and provide a preferred tolerance for changes. The assistant can then tailor a risk-informed plan and contingency options for that itinerary.
