When citizens of a democracy engage in wishful thinking that leads to bad outcomes, the question of who should be blamed is complex and multifaceted.
Factors and Responsibility in Wishful Thinking Outcomes
- Citizens themselves bear some responsibility because wishful thinking reflects cognitive biases and misjudgments in evaluating political realities and consequences. Voters often overestimate the success of their preferred parties or policies due to partisan attachments and optimism, which can distort electoral outcomes and policy support
. This can lead to voting for incoherent or ineffective policies, as voters may fail to critically assess the means and consequences of their preferences
- The state and political system also share blame because the democratic process requires a certain level of voter competence and information. When citizens are insufficiently informed or competent, the state has a role in ensuring better civic education and information dissemination. If the system does not support informed decision-making, it risks producing unjust or harmful outcomes imposed on the population by voters who are misinformed or irrational
- Political elites and leaders contribute to the problem when they engage in wishful thinking themselves or misrepresent facts to align with their preferences rather than reality. Politicians may hold unrealistic expectations or dismiss critical information, which can mislead voters and exacerbate poor democratic outcomes. This misalignment between politicians' beliefs and public opinion can fuel populism and political instability
- Structural and informational limitations also play a role. Governments and decision-makers often face severe information problems, especially in foreign policy or complex issues, leading to decisions based on limited or biased information and wishful thinking. The incentives for making sound decisions may be weak when the main victims of poor decisions are others who do not vote in the decision-makers' country
Summary
Blame for bad outcomes from wishful thinking in democracies is shared among:
- Citizens, for cognitive biases and unrealistic expectations.
- The democratic system and state, for not ensuring sufficient voter competence and information.
- Political leaders, for misrepresentation and wishful thinking.
- Structural constraints and information asymmetries inherent in governance.
Thus, it is a collective responsibility rather than the fault of any single actor
