The 2025 New Jersey governor's race is highly competitive between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Recent polls generally show Sherrill with a narrow lead, though some have the race almost tied. For example, a Quinnipiac poll had Sherrill ahead 51% to 42%, but an Emerson College poll showed a dead heat with both candidates at 43%. Betting markets suggest an 81% chance of Sherrill winning, but Ciattarelli has narrowed the gap in recent weeks. The race is seen as a key indicator of voter sentiment toward President Trump's second term, with Ciattarelli backed by Trump and Sherrill trying to distance herself from Trump politics. The election is set for November 4, 2025, with early voting starting October 25. Overall, the outlook favors Sherrill slightly, but the race remains close and could go either way.
Key factors influencing the race include:
- The state's historical trend of electing a governor from the party opposite that of the sitting president, which could favor Democrats this year.
- Economic concerns like the rising cost of living, a central campaign issue.
- The impact of Latino voters who were important for Trump in 2024 but may now lean toward Sherrill.
- The highly watched debates and campaign strategies around Trump and local issues.
In sum, Mikie Sherrill is currently favored to win by most polls and analysts, but Jack Ciattarelli has tightened the race, making the 2025 New Jersey governor contest a close and closely watched election.
