The next UK general election is not scheduled until 2029, but current polling and projections indicate the Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, is strongly positioned to win the most seats if an election were held soon. According to recent YouGov polling and analyses, Reform UK could win around 271 seats, becoming the largest party, while the Labour Party would come second. The Conservative Party is projected to fall to fourth place, trailing behind the Liberal Democrats. The election is likely to result in a hung parliament requiring coalitions, with no single party having an outright majority. Various coalition possibilities, including alliances involving Reform, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats, are being considered. Key points:
- Reform UK leads in projections with about 271 seats.
- Labour would be second with fewer seats.
- Conservatives may be very weak, possibly fourth place.
- Hung parliament is the likely outcome.
- Coalitions will be necessary to form a government.
- Political landscape is fragmented, with traditional parties losing dominance.
More detailed models also suggest if an immediate election happened, Reform UK's vote share is around 30% with a comfortable lead. However, if other parties consolidate support, the situation could change significantly. This information is based on polling and projections as of mid-2025 and political dynamics could evolve before the next actual election.
