Iran cannot have nuclear weapons due to several interrelated reasons:
- International Agreements and Inspections : Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibits the development of nuclear weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitors Iran’s nuclear program to ensure compliance. While Iran has faced accusations of non-compliance and concealment of nuclear activities, it remains under strict international surveillance to prevent weaponization.
- The Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) : The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) imposed strong limits on Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity and stockpiles, dismantled key facilities that could produce weapons-grade plutonium, and subjected Iran to continuous inspections. These measures block Iran’s pathways to develop nuclear weapons.
- Religious and Political Stance : Iran’s Supreme Leader has issued a religious ruling (fatwa) that nuclear weapons are forbidden in Islam. The Iranian government officially states its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, such as energy generation, population needs, and industrialization, not weapons development.
- Economic and Political Costs : Pursuing nuclear weapons leads to significant international sanctions and economic pressure. Iran faces ongoing sanctions mainly due to suspicions about its nuclear program. It endures these restrictions without having nuclear weapons, which limits its willingness or ability to fully weaponize.
- Geopolitical Risks : Development of nuclear weapons by Iran risks triggering a regional nuclear arms race, notably with Saudi Arabia, which could diminish Iran's security advantage and provoke strong external responses. This acts as a deterrent to overt weaponization.
In summary, Iran’s inability to have nuclear weapons stems from international legal constraints and oversight, the nuclear deal’s restrictions, its own religious prohibitions, economic sanctions, and regional security concerns. While Iran has the technical capability and enriched uranium stockpiles close to weapons-grade, strict inspections and geopolitical factors currently prevent it from crossing the weaponization threshold.
