The likelihood of an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attack as of 2025 is considered a real but low-probability, high-impact threat. Experts warn that a nuclear EMP attack, especially one detonated at high altitude, could cripple critical infrastructure such as the electrical grid, communications, transportation, and military command systems for months or longer. Such an attack poses an existential threat with potentially devastating consequences for the population and national security. Key points on the EMP attack likelihood and threat include:
- A nuclear EMP strike involves detonating a small nuclear weapon about 200 miles above the U.S., generating a powerful electromagnetic pulse that can overload and destroy electrical systems across wide areas.
- Although the threat has been recognized for decades (since the 1962 Starfish Prime test), the current U.S. electrical grid is vulnerable due to aging infrastructure.
- Experts like historian William Forstchen and former EMP Commission staff director Peter Pry have emphasized the reality of the threat and its catastrophic potential.
- There is concern about growing EMP capabilities in countries like China, Russia, and North Korea, which are developing high-altitude EMP weapons as part of their military strategies, potentially lowering the likelihood of an attack but increasing the risk.
- Efforts to harden infrastructure and develop defenses like missile shields or the "Golden Dome" system are underway, but policies and funding have faced challenges.
- Overall, the EMP attack is not considered highly likely in a near-term scenario, but its extreme impact compels preparedness and infrastructure resilience efforts.
Thus, while an EMP attack remains a low-probability event, it is taken seriously by defense experts and policymakers due to the catastrophic consequences it could trigger if it were to occur.
