how likely is government shutdown 2025

The likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown on September 30, 2025, is very high, with prediction markets estimating the odds at around 77% to 86% and experts deeming it nearly inevitable barring a last-minute breakthrough. The shutdown would occur because Congress has not agreed on a spending bill to fund government operations beyond the end of September. Republicans control both chambers but lack the 60 votes needed in the Senate to pass the funding bill, while Democrats are demanding extensions to healthcare subsidies and Medicaid that Republicans oppose. This impasse has led to a standoff, with President Donald Trump and congressional leaders meeting but not resolving the dispute. The shutdown would be the first in nearly seven years if it occurs at midnight on September 30, 2025, and it could lead to furloughs or layoffs of federal workers and disruptions in government services.