how likely government shutdown

The likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown as of September 30, 2025, is very high, with over 86% probability according to prediction markets. The government funding is set to expire at midnight on October 1, 2025, and no agreement has been reached between President Donald Trump and congressional leaders on a funding bill to prevent a shutdown. Democrats and Republicans remain at odds, especially over healthcare funding and other policy issues, which has created a deadlock. Vice President JD Vance and some Republican leaders forecast a shutdown unless Democrats concede or moderate their demands. Democrats have emphasized rejection of funding measures that would undermine healthcare, and Senate Democrats have warned they will not support the bill without extensions of certain benefits. The House is currently not in session and may not reconvene until after the deadline, complicating swift resolution. If the shutdown occurs, it would be the first federal closure during Trump's second term, leading to furloughs or potential layoffs of hundreds of thousands of federal employees, including a disruption in pay, although essential personnel like military and certain security staff would continue working without immediate pay. This shutdown risk is especially significant given that the Trump administration has instructed agencies to prepare mass layoff plans that go beyond usual furlough measures, which is more aggressive than previous shutdowns where furloughed workers were generally assured back pay upon government reopening. In summary, the government shutdown is very likely unless last-minute negotiations produce a compromise by the deadline just past midnight October 1, 2025, with broad consequences for federal workers and services, and political implications heading into midterm elections.