how likely is a shutdown

The likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown as of September 30, 2025, is very high, with an estimated probability around 86%. The shutdown is expected to start at midnight as Congress has not reached an agreement on a short-term funding bill. President Donald Trump, congressional leaders, and both Republican and Democratic parties remain deadlocked over key funding issues, including healthcare. Efforts to avert the shutdown have so far failed, and Vice President JD Vance has indicated a shutdown "seems nearly inevitable" due to lack of bipartisan cooperation. The House is currently out of session and not expected to reconvene until after the shutdown deadline, complicating last-minute deals. Shutdown consequences may include furloughs or potential permanent layoffs of federal workers, delays in economic data releases, and interruptions to certain government services. While historically shutdowns have lasted an average of about 8 days, the political standoff at this delicate economic moment raises concerns about the duration and impacts of this shutdown.